VegasSportsToday.com
On Sept. 30, the UNLV football team played the biggest game in coach Marcus Arroyo’s three-year tenure, and the Rebels responded with a 31-20 victory over New Mexico. But as important as the game was for the UNLV, it was just as important for its fans.
During the week, Arroyo made a point of talking about his hopes of drawing a large crowd. At the time, the team was 3-1, with one more win than he had notched in his two previous years with the Rebels. They have shown a potent offense and a opportunistic defense.
The have beaten the teams they were supposed to beat and also found a way to win a conference game on the road.
On that Friday night against the Lobos, a raucous crowd of 21,000 fans showed up to cheer on UNLV. It didn’t look like a large crowd in cavernous Allegiant Stadium (capacity 65,000) and that’s by no means a “big crowd,” but those that we there made themselves known.
The Rebels are now 4-1, only a couple of games away from bowl eligibility for the first time since Bobby Hauck led UNLV to a bowl game in 2013. They currently lead the Mountain West Conference West Division at 2-0 with convincing wins at Utah State and at home against New Mexico.
John Canzano, who covers the Pac-12 for his own JohnCanzano.com, recently wrote a column giving odds on school’s chances of joining the Pac-12 in this era of expansion. The Rebels were third on his list, behind San Diego State (even) and SMU (5-1). He listed the Rebels at 6-1. Here’s what he said:
The Pac-12 holds its basketball and football championship games in Las Vegas and conference commissioner George Kliavkoff is well connected on The Strip. There are ample sponsorship opportunities, it’s located in the Pacific Time Zone and the conference would get a foothold in a rapidly growing sports city.
The TV market is just so-so (No. 40 nationally), but UNLV is a speculative play all the way. The football hasn’t been great historically. But conference expansion isn’t about on-field performance as much as it is about adding strategic partners and capturing television households.
The Big Ten didn’t want Rutgers and Maryland because of on-field football performance, for example. It wanted the New York and Washington, D.C. television markets.
I’m placing Vegas in front of some others here because I think it — and 757,000 TV households — offers strong upside. The population in the area grew 8.7 percent from 2010 to 2020. Projections predict that Las Vegas and Southern Nevada could have 3.3 million residents by 2060.
Odds: 6 to 1
Biggest question: Does the growth in Las Vegas continue at record rates in the next 20 years?
UNLV was rated higher than other more accomplished Mountain West Schools Boise State (8-1) and Fresno State (10-1). In conference realignment, it’s not always the better performing team that get the call. Look at UCLA, which has been a middle of the pack team in the Pac-12. The Bruins got the call to the Big 10, riding on USC’ coattails in the huge Los Angeles media market.
Las Vegas is nowhere near the size of the LA market, but when you consider what’s not already covered by Power 5 conferences, Las Vegas is still pretty enticing. Having a good football team that has an actual fanbase can go a long way in increasing those odds.
There’s no way to really tell when and even if the Pac-12 will decide whether it will stand at the 10 remaining teams once USC and UCLA leave, or if they will decide to add a team or two. But if they do, now would be a good time for the team to rattle off a few more wins, get bowl eligible and maybe even play for the conference title.
Besides the team continuing to play well, it would also behoove the fans to show up. 21,000 fans is OK for a Friday night against New Mexico, but it need to be at least in the 30s when they play at home against Air Force on Oct. 15 and against Fresno State on Nov. 11 (another Friday game). Of course, the final game of the season against UNR (Nov. 26) always draws a good crowd whether the Rebel are good or not.
Rebel fans have talked about getting a Pac 12 invite for a long time. I always thought that was a pipe dream, but there is a possible pathway. Big crowds will help.